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ESTRAD3R

Futures · Started Nov 2022

Trades Own Strategy BrokerTransmit

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
10.5%
Max Drawdown
42.2%
Trades
729
Win Trades
37.7%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
47.9%

About this strategy

The strategy uses three timeframes and a couple of indicators to generate buy and sell signals

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2022-1.20.0-1.2
20230.0-14.6-1.711.50.88.1-2.0-0.1-15.9-6.1-4.2-3.9-27.4
2024-1.83.2-7.110.44.05.34.817.0-9.11.32.1-0.630.4
2025-0.8-8.134.6-5.84.2-2.93.05.7-5.815.35.96.656.1
202612.93.037.16.2-0.9-21.2-12.1-6.7-7.41.11.4

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began11/4/2022
Suggested Minimum Capital$45,000
Age48 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades729
# Profitable275
% Profitable37.7%
Avg trade duration1.6 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown42.2%
drawdown periodMay 28, 2026 - Sept 15, 2026
Annual Return (Compounded)10.5%
Avg win$806
Avg loss$440

Ratios

W:L ratio1.11
Sharpe Ratio0.33
Sortino Ratio0.62
Calmar Ratio0.41

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life103.1%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-59.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)10.5%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)14.7%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity70.7%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.1%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss66.5%
Chance of 20% account loss42.5%
Chance of 30% account loss17.5%
Chance of 40% account loss8.0%
Chance of 50% account loss1.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)750
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)527

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?187617
TOS percent100.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$440
Avg Win$806
# Winners275
Sum Trade PL (losers)$199,890
Sum Trade PL (winners)$221,773
Num Months Winners23
# Losers454
% Winners37.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table48

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)93.57
Avg Position Time (hrs)1.56
Avg Trade Length0.10
Last Trade Ago3

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)13.04
Daily leverage (max)45.90

Regression

Alpha0.04
Beta-0.03
Treynor Index-1.21

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-1.72
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.89
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.73
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.25
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.58

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.25
SD0.32
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.77
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.75
df43
t1.47
p0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.80
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.28
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.79
Sortino ratio1.34
Upside Potential Ratio2.99
Upside part of mean0.55
Downside part of mean-0.30
Upside SD0.27
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms26
N negative terms18
N of observations44
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.25
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.32
Covariance-0.00
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.26
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error42
t(b)-0.24
p(b)0.59
t(a)1.44
p(a)0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.86
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.68
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.63
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.72
Jensen alpha (a)0.26
Mean0.19
SD0.32
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.62
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.60
df43
t1.18
p0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.64
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.43
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.64
Sortino ratio0.98
Upside Potential Ratio2.60
Upside part of mean0.52
Downside part of mean-0.32
Upside SD0.25
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms26
N negative terms18
N of observations44
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.19
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.32
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.20
Mean Square Error0.10
DF error42
t(b)-0.10
p(b)0.54
t(a)1.13
p(a)0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.81
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.73
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.56
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.92
Jensen alpha (a)0.20
VaR(95%)0.13
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.16
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
Mean0.17
SD0.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.51
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.51
df981
t0.99
p0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.52
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.50
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.52
Sortino ratio0.95
Upside Potential Ratio8.27
Upside part of mean1.48
Downside part of mean-1.31
Upside SD0.28
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms200
N negative terms782
N of observations982
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.17
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.33
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.17
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error980
t(b)-0.37
p(b)0.65
t(a)1.01
p(a)0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.52
Treynor index (mean / b)-6.55
Jensen alpha (a)0.18
Mean0.12
SD0.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.36
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.36
df981
t0.69
p0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.66
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.37
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.66
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.37
Sortino ratio0.64
Upside Potential Ratio7.92
Upside part of mean1.44
Downside part of mean-1.32
Upside SD0.27
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms200
N negative terms782
N of observations982
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.33
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.12
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error980
t(b)-0.32
p(b)0.63
t(a)0.71
p(a)0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.45
Treynor index (mean / b)-5.26
Jensen alpha (a)0.12
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean-0.31
SD0.41
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.76
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.75
df130
t-0.54
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.02
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.53
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.02
Sortino ratio-1.14
Upside Potential Ratio5.90
Upside part of mean1.59
Downside part of mean-1.90
Upside SD0.30
Downside SD0.27
N nonnegative terms24
N negative terms107
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion-0.31
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.41
Covariance-0.00
r-0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.21
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.26
Mean Square Error0.16
DF error129
t(b)-0.89
p(b)0.55
t(a)-0.45
p(a)0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.88
Treynor index (mean / b)1.43
Jensen alpha (a)-0.26
Mean-0.39
SD0.40
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.96
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.96
df130
t-0.68
p0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.81
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.73
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.82
Sortino ratio-1.40
Upside Potential Ratio5.59
Upside part of mean1.55
Downside part of mean-1.94
Upside SD0.29
Downside SD0.28
N nonnegative terms24
N negative terms107
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion-0.39
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.40
Covariance-0.00
r-0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.21
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.34
Mean Square Error0.16
DF error129
t(b)-0.87
p(b)0.55
t(a)-0.60
p(a)0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.69
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.79
Treynor index (mean / b)1.85
Jensen alpha (a)-0.34
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations44
Minimum0.78
Quartile 10.96
Median1.02
Quartile 31.07
Maximum1.26
Mean of quarter 10.91
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.05
Mean of quarter 41.14
Inter Quartile Range0.10
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.78
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.26
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.08
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.12
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.32
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.16
Number of observations982
Minimum0.92
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.16
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low181
Percentage of outliers low0.18
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high160
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.99
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.28
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum0.92
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.10
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low25
Percentage of outliers low0.19
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high17
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high1.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.53
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.17
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations8
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.06
Median0.08
Quartile 30.14
Maximum0.30
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20.07
Mean of quarter 30.11
Mean of quarter 40.23
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.30
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations21
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.04
Median0.07
Quartile 30.13
Maximum0.37
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30.09
Mean of quarter 40.25
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high0.37
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.07
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.25
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.32
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.86
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.28
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.30
Number of observations5
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.03
Median0.04
Quartile 30.12
Maximum0.37
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.04
Mean of quarter 30.12
Mean of quarter 40.37
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.37
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-375946880
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)110
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.34
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.25
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.85
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.06
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.58
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.19
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.16
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.42
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.61
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal3.84
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.33
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.30
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.81
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.81
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-5.89

Trading record

Placed 119 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@MES Z6long8Oct 9, 2026Oct 9, 2026$650
@ES Z6long1Oct 9, 2026Oct 9, 2026$817
@MES Z6long8Oct 6, 2026Oct 6, 2026$125
@ES Z6long1Oct 6, 2026Oct 6, 2026$130
@MES Z6short8Oct 1, 2026Oct 1, 2026($90)
@ES Z6short1Oct 1, 2026Oct 1, 2026($108)
@MES Z6short8Oct 1, 2026Oct 1, 2026($500)
@ES Z6short1Oct 1, 2026Oct 1, 2026($621)
@ES Z6long1Sep 21, 2026Sep 21, 2026$605
@MES Z6long8Sep 21, 2026Sep 21, 2026$480
@MES Z6short8Sep 18, 2026Sep 18, 2026($70)
@ES Z6short1Sep 18, 2026Sep 18, 2026($83)
@MES Z6short16Sep 16, 2026Sep 16, 2026($449)
@ES Z6short2Sep 16, 2026Sep 16, 2026($554)
@ES Z6short1Sep 15, 2026Sep 15, 2026($146)
@MES Z6short9Sep 15, 2026Sep 15, 2026($146)
@ES U6short2Sep 10, 2026Sep 10, 2026($1,516)
@ES U6short2Sep 4, 2026Sep 4, 2026($766)
@ES U6short2Sep 4, 2026Sep 4, 2026($791)
@ES U6short2Aug 28, 2026Aug 28, 2026$159
@ES U6short2Aug 26, 2026Aug 26, 2026($741)
@MES U6short1Aug 26, 2026Aug 26, 2026($36)
@MES U6short1Aug 24, 2026Aug 24, 2026($55)
@ES U6short2Aug 24, 2026Aug 24, 2026($1,091)
@MES U6short2Aug 24, 2026Aug 24, 2026($5)
@ES U6short2Aug 24, 2026Aug 24, 2026($41)
@MES U6short2Aug 24, 2026Aug 24, 2026($87)
@ES U6short2Aug 24, 2026Aug 24, 2026($866)
@MES U6short3Aug 20, 2026Aug 20, 2026$0
@ES U6short2Aug 20, 2026Aug 20, 2026$34

Strategy family

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.